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KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - An ambitious push by the international community to set up an endgame in Afghanistan will hinge on its ability to break the Taliban insurgency around the country's urban areas.
No urban area is more important than Kandahar city.
With U.S. President Barack Obama expected this week to announce a dramatic increase in the number of U.S .troops in Afghanistan, the Canadian contingent in Kandahar is already preparing the groundwork for the new strategy.
The bulk of the new troops-estimates range between 20,000 and 40,000-will reportedly be deployed in southern Afghanistan, the Taliban's centre of operations.
NATO commanders in the south have indicated they plan to establish a protective perimeter around Kandahar city, where 330 Canadian soldiers and civilians are in charge of security and development efforts.
For several weeks, Canadian troops have been updating intelligence on the city's neighbourhoods and conducting disrupt operations in outlying areas.
"One of the areas where we need to do better work is understanding Kandahar city," said Lt. Col. Carl Turenne, commanding officer of the Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team.
"I am already refocusing to make sure we get much more out of the city."
Senior Canadian military and civilian officials are reluctant to speak about the potential implications of a surge in American troops and say NATO's orders have yet to be finalized.
But given the sustained Canadian presence in the city it is almost certain the PRT will play a leading role in implementing U.S. Gen. Stanley McChrystal's plan to refocus NATO's counter-insurgency strategy on population centres.
The Canadian military has recently taken a lead in bolstering the coalition's information about the political and security dynamics of the city.
Meanwhile, the civilian side of the PRT will be the prime beneficiary of NATO's intention to create a security ring around Kandahar and then flood the centre with development.
"If it's an ISAF commander priority, that goes down the chain" said Jess Dutton, the PRT civilian director. "It means more resources so we can do our job better."
Though Canada will likely be central in the push to improve security in Kandahar, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that was unlikely to influence plans to end the military mission in 2011.
"I don't sense any desire on the part of parliamentarians to do that," he told reporters at the Commonwealth summit in Trinidad and Tobago.
"We're right now examining how Canada can move forward with enhanced civilian presence, a focus on development and humanitarian aid."
As NATO members await details of Obama's plans for Afghanistan, they're keen to establish the parameters of an eventual withdrawal of international forces.
While at the Commonwealth summit, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced plans to hold a conference in January that would establish benchmarks for the gradual handover of Afghanistan's security to local forces.
In many regards, the decision by Canadian military commanders to prioritize Kandahar city marks a new line in the sand. Additional U.S. troops in Kandahar this summer had prompted the Canadian to focus their efforts in the rural areas southwest of the city.
The city, the second largest in Afghanistan, has long-enjoyed a prominent role in Afghanistan's history, thanks largely to its location at the crossroads of trade routes from Pakistan.
Now Kandahar city is considered ground zero of the Canadian counter-insurgency effort.
Analysts believe the Taliban is trying to destabilize the Afghan government by targeting cities. Kandahar city itself was the site of repeated attacks in the run-up to the August presidential election. A massive car bomb rocked the city later that month, killing more than 40 people.
But the current security situation in Kandahar city is the subject of considerable debate.
According to Turenne, the city has been relatively calm since the August bombing.
"I scratch my head when I read many of the higher level reports," he said. "I see a city progressing, not stepping back."
Most Canadian officials will acknowledge that while there is a Taliban presence in the city, it is not overt. In an oft-repeated line, they say the city, like any in North America, has its dangerous areas.
"There is a lot of subversive influence, but are there areas where the (Taliban) are predominantly sitting? No," said Maj. Christopher Lunney, who heads a stabilization team that patrols Kandahar regularly.
This contrasts strongly with descriptions provided by Afghans who live in the city.
"The main door of the city is in the hands of the Taliban," said Haji Agha Lalai, a senior member of the provincial council in Kandahar. "The Taliban can enter very easily."
Residents say areas in the north and northeast are heavily populated with Taliban, who enforce curfews in some neighbourhoods.
By placing troops around the perimeter of the city, NATO is hoping to intercept Taliban being squeezed from rural areas.
Canadian operations in the districts of Panjwaii and Dand, combined with the influx of U.S. troops in areas north of the Arghandab river, were aimed at reducing the freedom of movement enjoyed by insurgents.
With limited access to the approaches to the city, soldiers feel they are putting the insurgents in an uncomfortable position.
"Either they can leave or they can try to blend into the city," Cpt. Darryl Watts said while patrolling Kandahar with his military stabilization team.
Last week, Watts' unit conducted a nighttime disrupt operation just outside the southwest limits of the city, where NATO's security cordon could be erected in the near future.
Soldiers were gathering evidence about compounds and fields in an area with a history of Taliban activity in an effort to better co-ordinate the transfer of information to Canada's allies.
