While the East Kootenay can expect a reprieve from these high temperatures within about a week, the short-term forecast is complicated and not ideal for the current wildfire situation, according to Matt Loney, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
There are currently heat warnings in place for much of southern part of B.C., plus gusty winds, which Environment Canada are keeping an eye on.
"Any fires that are out there, the conditions are going to be ripe for continued flareups, and then we have the smoke issue," Loney told the Bulletin. "That’s always going to be an issue when you have a scenario like we have here. So we’ve got the heat and we’ve got the humidity index which is going to be elevated as well.
"It’s a pretty interesting pattern, but it’s also complicated and it’s not great for fires in the short term."
Loney explained this instability will stick around for the next four to five days, with an upper disturbance that will pass mainly through Alberta, but also affect an eastern portion of B.C. With that, the East Kootenay should see a cool down, with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but Loney said it will just be a conditional chance each day.
Heat warnings should recede by the latter part of the weekend and early next week, but he said the instability will continue. Winds are predicted to shift, likely from the north with the potential of bringing with them smoke from northern wildfires introducing complications with respect to visibility and health risks posed by ground-level smoke.
There is a potential for rain, and any is welcome during this type of weather pattern, but Loney said that at least for the short term it will be very humid at low levels, but the moisture layer will not be very thick.
"Typically we like to see thunderstorms that give copious amounts of rain which would be good in this scenario, we’d want to see a thicker layer, or a deeper layer of moisture and we just don’t have that in this scenario," he said. "If thunderstorms do spark up, at least initially in this pattern, until we get to about Monday, if we lack moisture they’re going to be more dry lightning associated."
He added that that moisture levels will be enough to get thunderstorms started, but as they build vertically they won't have the moisture needed to sustain themselves and at the same time there will will still be a risk of dry lightning.
By the time we get to Sunday and into Monday, there will likely be more reliable moisture coming down, but it's expected that much of it will keep more towards the Rockies and eastward into Alberta.
"There’s so many factors that can exacerbate fires and there’s other factors that can pull them in," Loney said. "Really rain and cool weather is the only thing that can reign it in, other than the firefighters attacking it and really getting a good foothold on them, but in this case we’re sort of out of luck with all of those, at least in the short term.
"We’ve got lightning risk, we’ve still got wind risk and we’ve got these high temperatures. So the short term looks bad, but then the longer range should offer some relief with cooler weather and maybe a bit deeper moisture at least to have something to work with. We’ll get there eventually, but hopefully nothing flares up too badly in the short term."
Remember that the Southeast Fire Centre is currently under a Category 1 campfire and Category 2 and 3 open burning ban.
To report a wildfire, unattended campfire or open burning violation, call call 1 800 663-5555 toll-free or *5555 on a cellphone.
